The Hormuz crisis is being treated like a footnote. It isn't.

It's been nearly two months since the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Two months. And the market reaction feels like the world collectively decided to take a nap.

Let me be specific about what "closed" actually means. We're not talking about a 10% disruption to oil flows. Traffic through the strait fell to near zero. Around 20% of the world's seaborne oil is gone from the market. 20% of global LNG. And while those numbers are staggering on their own, the piece that almost nobody is talking about is fertilizer: roughly a third of the world's urea exports normally pass through that waterway. Spring planting season is happening right now. Urea prices are already up 50%. This isn't an energy story, it's a food story, and it's going to arrive at supermarkets in the autumn.

Then there's helium. I know. It sounds almost comically esoteric. But stay with me.

Qatar produces about a third of the world's helium supply. Its liquefaction facility at Ras Laffan is physically operational, the gas just can't get out. Meanwhile Russia, the world's third-largest producer, has now banned helium exports to "unfriendly nations" until end-2027. That means the United States is now the dominant western helium source, full stop. And spot prices have gone from $400-600 per thousand cubic feet to $1,000-1,200 virtually overnight.

Why does this matter? Because helium isn't party balloons. It's a critical input for semiconductor fabrication, MRI machines, and the production of high-capacity hard drives. Chip makers typically hold about six weeks of supply. There are reportedly 200 specialised helium containers stranded near the strait right now. The AI infrastructure buildout that every fund manager is excited about runs on fabrication processes that require helium. That pipeline is now fragile in a way it has never been before.

On top of all this, jet fuel has roughly doubled since February. European airports are already rationing. The International Energy Agency put Europe's remaining jet fuel supply at around six weeks. Airlines are cutting summer schedules. Ryanair is talking about 5-10% cancellations if nothing changes. And "nothing changing" is looking increasingly likely, because Iran has apparently been laying additional mines in the strait, which means regardless of whatever diplomatic noises are made in the short term, the physical infrastructure of reopening is a different problem entirely.

There's also a wild card that I haven't seen discussed anywhere near enough. Under existing US law, the President can restrict or halt American oil exports by executive action. If things get bad enough domestically, politically and economically, the incentive to do exactly that grows. North America insulates itself. The rest of the world, particularly Europe and Asia, discovers what $200 oil actually feels like.

The calm in equities right now is genuinely strange to me. The bond market isn't panicking. Inflation expectations are moving but not screaming. It feels like the world has decided this will resolve cleanly and soon, based on, as far as I can tell, very little.

The mechanism for how this ends well is unclear. The mechanism for how it gets worse is not.